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Land supply in third- and fourth-tier property markets decreases

来源:中国证券报 07:53, January 7, 2020 Source: China Securities Journal

□ Our reporter Dong Tian Zhang Yujie

The national land market is picking up in 2019, and the volume and price of land transfers are rising. Institutional data show that the total amount of land transfers in 300 cities across the country for a total of 5,294.94 billion yuan, an increase of 19% year-on-year. Among them, the land transfer amount of 16 cities exceeded 100 billion yuan. Land sales in Sanya, Lanzhou, and Dalian all increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Since the second half of 2019, leading real estate companies have taken the lead in "braking", and in the fourth quarter, nearly 30% of real estate companies did not acquire land. The state-owned enterprises performed relatively positively, and actively participated in land transfer in hot cities in the second half of the year.

Reduced land supply in the property market

By region, according to the "China 300 Urban Land Transaction Information 2019" released by the Middle Finger Research Institute, the supply and demand of land in first-tier cities continued to rise, the total amount of land transferred increased year-on-year, and the average transaction price fell year-on-year. Among them, the total amount of land transfer in Shenzhen area increased by more than 50% year-on-year. With the continuous improvement of soil auction policies in second-tier cities, the land supply and transaction area increased significantly year-on-year, and the total amount of land transfer and the average transaction price increased year-on-year. However, the overall land transaction premium rate has changed little, and the land market has generally remained stable. In third- and fourth-tier cities, the area of land supply decreased year-on-year, supply and demand both declined year-on-year, and premium rates fell.

In terms of quarters, in the first quarter of 2019, the national land supply and demand fell year-on-year, and the total transaction amount and average price fell year-on-year. Among them, the hotspot cities ’overall land market regulation is stricter, and the land market is getting colder; the market rebounded in the second quarter, and the land market ushered in a small spring; entering the third and fourth quarters, under the background of tightening financing of housing companies and increasing hotspot cities’ land market regulation The overall land transfer market in the country was lower.

From the perspective of the nature of the transferred land, in 2019, a total of 300 cities across the country launched a total of residential land (including residential land and comprehensive land including residential land). The total amount of land transferred was 423.2 billion yuan, an increase of 23% year-on-year; the total amount of land sold for commercial purposes was 510.8 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. Residential land (including residential land and comprehensive land including residential land) totaled 8,799 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the transaction area totaled 425.57 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7%; commercial-type land totaled 4,037 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 5 %, The total transaction area reached 106.99 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The average floor price of residential land (including residential land and comprehensive land including residential land) was 4363 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 16%; the average transaction floor price of commercial land was 2289 yuan / square meter, year-on-year. Down 0.2%.

According to the data monitored by the Middle Finger Research Institute, the three cities in Sanya, Lanzhou, and Dalian all increased their annual land transfers by more than 100% in 2019. Among them, the total land transfer of Sanya City for the whole year was 12.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 553%, and the year-on-year growth rate ranked first in the country. Central Plains Real Estate data shows that the total land transfer amount of the top 50 cities in the country in 2019 was 4.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. Among them, the land transfer value of 16 cities exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the total land transaction amount of Hangzhou was 283.6 billion yuan, ranking first; Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Suzhou followed closely with 199.2 billion yuan, 186.4 billion yuan, and 1850 respectively. 100 million yuan.

The head of the Hangzhou branch of Jinyu Real Estate told a reporter from China Securities News that Hangzhou's land transfer amount in 2019 ranked first in the country, but only about half were residential projects. Homes are steadily supplied at a rate of 100,000 units per year.

Real estate companies return to rationality

Kerer data shows that in 2019, real estate investment continued the cautious trend since 2018. Under the background of gradual tightening of financing, real estate companies gradually returned to rationality; but the pattern of the strong and the strong has not changed. The superposition effect of scale advantage is constantly enlarged. Since the second half of 2019, leading real estate companies have taken the lead in "braking". In the fourth quarter, nearly 30% of real estate companies did not take up land, and only state-owned enterprises performed relatively positively. The sales value of the TOP10 real estate companies increased by more than 40%, but fell by 7 percentage points year-on-year, mainly because leading real estate companies were more cautious in acquiring land.

Relying on the advantages of low capital cost, state-owned housing enterprises have taken up more land in first- and second-tier cities. China Securities Journal reporters learned that in order to speed up capital turnover and improve the efficiency of capital operations, these companies generally choose to enter the market in a short time after acquiring land in hot cities.

According to relevant housing enterprises, land prices in hot spots are higher and land costs are higher overall. However, compared with the third- and fourth-tier cities, the hotspot cities have a faster overall transaction speed. After land acquisition, they can complete the payment in less time from construction to sales to delivery.

Regarding the trend of land acquisition by real estate companies, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told a reporter from China Securities Journal that it is expected that the real estate market will diverge in the future, and real estate enterprises will continue to lower their pricing on non-quality land. However, the competition for high-quality land in high-quality cities will intensify. First- and second-tier cities have strict control policies, but for housing companies, in order to increase sales, they will still focus on land. In terms of trends, third- and fourth-tier cities are relatively sluggish, and real estate companies will invest more funds in first- and second-tier cities, driving the land market in first- and second-tier cities to continue to heat up.

Stable development and curb speculation

It is worth noting that some areas where the land transfer market is overheated will experience greater control in 2019.

Taking Suzhou, the top four nationwide land transfers in 2019, as an example, Suzhou's total land transfers for the whole year of 2019 were 185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.72%. In the first half of 2019, due to the frequent transactions of "land king" and the high land transaction volume and price, the total land transaction amount led most cities in the country. Around May 2019, Suzhou introduced a series of regulatory measures for the real estate market to cool down the real estate market.

Some first-tier cities have recently launched unrestricted land, which has been interpreted by many in the industry as a relaxation of the land transfer model for restricted housing. Central Plains real estate data shows that starting from January 2, 2020, the Beijing land market has started again, and a total of 15 residential land awaiting transfer. Among them, 2 cases are common property land parcels, 2 are limited-competitive housing land parcels, and 11 are unrestricted commercial housing land parcels.

Zhongyuan Real Estate Chief Analyst Zhang Dawei said that in 2019, the property market will undergo two-way regulation and tightening. In 2020, real estate regulation will adhere to the theme of stability, curb speculation, and protect real residence. The land transfer market will focus on stability.

(Responsible editor: Sun Dan)