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Fiscal policy boosts infrastructure growth

来源:证券日报 07:48, January 7, 2020 Source: Securities Daily

Since the fourth quarter of last year, with the gradual implementation of the "six stability" policy, destocking has slowed down, external demand has gradually stabilized, and domestic demand has slowed down, and the endogenous driving force for economic growth has continued to increase. Especially in the area of investment in fixed assets, investment in the short board sector has continued to increase.

From the data of the first 11 months of last year, we can see that investment in short-term areas such as people's livelihood, environmental protection, and transportation has continued to increase. In the first 11 months of last year, investment in the social sector increased by 12.6% year-on-year, which was 7.4 percentage points higher than the total investment. Investment in the road transport industry increased by 8.8%, which was 0.7 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points faster than the first 10 months of last year and the same period of 2018.

"Securities Daily" reporter statistics found that recently, 29 institutions have forecasted the accumulated fixed asset investment data for the whole year of 2019, predicting an average year-on-year growth of 5.4%.

Shen Wanhongyuan macro senior analyst Qin Tai said that the financing environment is improving and infrastructure investment may continue to improve slightly. It is estimated that the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (full caliber) in December last year rose slightly to 3.6%. In terms of manufacturing investment, consumer demand rose steadily in the fourth quarter, and the export environment has improved. It is expected that manufacturing investment will remain relatively stable in December last year, with cumulative growth or a slight increase to 2.6%. In terms of real estate investment, the growth rate of land purchase fees is expected to continue to decline, and real estate investment may still face downward pressure. However, considering the support brought by Jian'an's active investment, the growth rate of real estate investment in December last year is expected to fall to 10%. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment last year or maintained at 5.2%.

Huang Tao, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macro Bonds, said otherwise. Huang Wentao believes that considering that January 2020 is the peak period for special debt financing and infrastructure development, the previous December 2019 should be the stage of preparation and storage. The performance of infrastructure investment during the same period may be relatively flat, and the base of the same period last year was superimposed. Raising, it is expected that the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment may fall slightly. The growth rate of real estate sales in December 2019 may decline. In November of last year, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises picked up. The cumulative profit growth rate may indicate the bottom of the profit cycle of industrial enterprises. Stacked PPI recovery expectations are expected to strengthen the profit cycle bottom recovery expectations. Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize. Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2019 will decline slightly.

Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that the growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2019 may remain at about 2.5%. The positive logic of future manufacturing investment: First, high-tech manufacturing investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Second, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will increase in 2020, and real estate investment will remain stable. The policy stimulus variables related to domestic demand are expected to be reflected earlier in the year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December last year emphasized that "proactive fiscal policy must vigorously improve quality and efficiency, pay more attention to structural adjustment, and ensure key areas." The focus of fiscal policy this year is to improve infrastructure, and it is estimated that a special debt quota of 3 trillion yuan will be added in 2020. A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance has approved the advancement of some new special debt quotas in 2020, and is likely to accelerate the issuance and physical workload in the first quarter of this year. This positive change may lead to an increase in infrastructure growth.

In terms of real estate development investment, Li Chao said that the resilience of real estate investment growth is still higher than market expectations at the beginning of last year. In terms of economic growth, the market has now formed more consistent expectations for the rebound in infrastructure investment next year. The big difference is the trend of real estate investment. The resilience of the real estate industry may not be underestimated. From a micro perspective, housing companies still have the need to actively replenish their warehouses and maintain new starts and constructions. This is also an important way for housing companies to recover pre-sale funds and ease cash flow pressure. The cumulative negative year-on-year negative growth in land purchases and completed areas has continued to narrow. The willingness of real estate developers to replenish inventory will support investment data.

(Responsible editor: Sun Dan)