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Domestic oil prices may start to rise for the first time, and may again welcome the "7 Yuan era"

来源:经济参考报 January 9, 2020 08:26 Source: Economic Reference

Recently, the conflict between the United States and Iran and tensions in the Middle East have escalated, market risk aversion has accelerated, international oil prices have continued to rise to a new high of 8 months, and the rate of change of crude oil referenced by domestic oil price adjustments has gradually increased within a positive range. The first price adjustment may start with an increase, and most regions in China may once again enter the "7 Yuan era."

As soon as the year 2020 begins, the "black swan" incident will occur in the global crude oil market. The tension in the Middle East continued to rise, causing huge fluctuations in international oil prices. On January 6, Brent crude oil rose to 70.66 US dollars / barrel, and then fell short-term. At the close, it rose 0.45% to close at 68.91 US dollars per barrel; WTI crude oil The price also experienced similar changes, climbing to US $ 64.72 / barrel at noon, with an increase of over 2.5% during the day, and then falling back to close at US $ 63.27 per barrel, an increase of 0.35%.

Affected by this, the rate of change of crude oil fluctuated in a positive range. According to the monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of January 6, the reference crude oil change rate for the fifth working day in China was 1.21%, corresponding to an increase of 55 yuan / ton for gasoline and diesel, and the price adjustment window was 14:00 on January 14.

Zhongyu Information's analysis report believes that the current situation in the Middle East has not deteriorated further, and the risk sentiment has temporarily eased, but the regional situation's risk appetite is still high and may continue to deteriorate at any time.

According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, at present, the price of 92 # national six gasoline in most areas of China is about to exceed 7 yuan / liter, and there is still a price difference of 0.01 yuan / liter to 0.05 yuan / liter. According to Zhuochuang's calculation, the adjustment of 50 yuan / ton corresponds to the increase of 92 # gasoline, which is 0.04 yuan / liter, which also means that once the current round of oil prices increase, the price of 92 # gasoline in most regions of China will return to "7 yuan." era".

(Responsible editor: Yang Xiufeng)

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