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What is the hard technology of the rising HIT

来源:经济日报 January 9, 2020 07:41 Source: Economic Daily

Benefiting from the rising HIT photovoltaic cell concept stocks, the photovoltaic concept index has risen recently. Many concept stocks, such as Topsun New Energy, Epic Optoelectronics, and Almaton, performed well.

According to You Jiaxun, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, HIT is the English abbreviation for "heterojunction" battery technology, which is simply a new photovoltaic cell production technology. HIT technology has several advantages: high photoelectric conversion efficiency, excellent performance, large cost reduction space, and good prospects for parity Internet access. As one of the battery technology solutions, HIT technology was once known in the industry as one of the candidate technologies for next-generation commercial photovoltaic production.

Xu Chao, an analyst at Guangzheng Hang Seng Securities, believes that there are basically two paths for the development of new technologies in the photovoltaic cell industry in the future. One is HIT technology, and the other is PERC + technology (passivated emitter and back-cell technology). HIT technology batteries have formed a new industry frontier because of their obvious advantages.

What development opportunities does HIT photovoltaic technology bring? Analyst Chen Xianfan of Soochow Securities believes that there is a lot of room for cost reduction in localization of HIT photovoltaic cells, and there are several directions for reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the future. The first is to reduce the thickness of silicon wafers and the amount of silicon used; the second is to control the consumption of silver paste, and the cost will be further reduced after localization; the third is to increase the capacity of single equipment and import substitution. At the same time, HIT photovoltaic cell technology has brought new investment opportunities to the upstream and downstream industries. It is estimated that from 2019 to 2022, the HIT equipment market space will exceed 22 billion yuan.

Judging from the development history of HIT photovoltaic cells, only recently has an industrial breakthrough really started to appear. In 2019, domestic companies Hanergy's R & D efficiency reached 25.11%, Jinneng and Junshi's R & D efficiency was close to 25%, and mass production efficiency stood at 24%. Major breakthroughs have also been made in the localization of targets and silver paste. The path for HIT to reduce costs has become clearer and the cost performance has been continuously improved. The number of HIT companies has expanded from 7 in the early period to about 20 at present. In the future, with the technological prosperity brought by photovoltaic cell technology innovation, the scale of the photovoltaic market is expected to maintain rapid growth, which will also provide strong support for the stock prices of related listed companies.

Although the concept of HIT photovoltaic cells is currently eye-catching in the A-share market, the investment risks in it must be prevented. You Jiaxun said that investors should also beware of the risks brought by the lower cost of new technologies than expected. At present, the production cost of "heterojunction" batteries is still relatively high, and it is expected to reduce costs in the future through wafer flakes, reduced slurry usage, and equipment localization. If the cost reduction is less than expected, it will have a certain impact on the industrialization of "heterojunction" batteries. At the same time, it should be noted that the increase in mass production efficiency of such new photovoltaic cells may not meet the expected risks. At present, the mass production efficiency of "heterojunction" batteries is more than 23.5%, and the efficiency advantage is the biggest advantage of "heterojunction" batteries. If the efficiency improvement is less than expected in the future, it will weaken its competitive advantage with other technology routes, which will adversely affect the performance of relevant listed companies. (Economic Daily reporter Zhou Lin)

(Responsible editor: Wang Wanying)

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