Land sales have reached record highs, house prices have risen for 41 consecutive months, and more than ten foreign housing companies have settled in 2019 ... Kunming, a city known for its four seasons of spring climate, can be said to usher in the most lively property market in 2019 Year.
"In 2019, the real estate market in Kunming experienced a dual situation of good performance and increased pressure." Jianguo Jun, a researcher in Zhuge's housing market, pointed out to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that Kunming real estate in 2020 has no major positives. In the case of incentives or significant negative pressure, the subsequent development trajectory will still reflect a stable basic tone.
Land transaction hits record high
On December 31, 2019, with 125,088.66 square meters of commercial land in Dabanqiao Street of the Airport Economic Zone being unregistered, the land market in the main city of Kunming officially closed in 2019. And 2019 can be said to be the busiest year for the land market in Kunming.
According to the data of the Middle Finger Institute, in 2019, 592 land transfers in Kunming amounted to 24.753 million square meters, an increase of about 55.4% year-on-year; the amount of transfers reached 101.19 billion yuan, an increase of about 60% year-on-year. In 2018, Kunming's land transfer fee was only 63.3 billion yuan.
"Daily Economic News" reporter learned from the official website of the Kunming Natural Resources and Planning Bureau that in 2019, except for the three batches of more than 100 acres of residential land in the Northwest New City, Economic Development Zone and Airport Economic Zone, Kunming's main urban area was sold out due to insufficient registrations. The land market as a whole maintained a very high turnover rate. At the same time, the Kunming land market also frequently staged fierce scenes of premium transactions in 2019. Caohai, northern Shanshui New City, Chenggong, Fangwang, Dongbaisha River and other areas all have land premiums. According to the data of the Middle Finger Institute, the average premium rate for land transactions in Kunming in 2019 is 7.17%.
In terms of land transaction scale, it is mainly concentrated in the plots of Caohai, Xinluojiuwan, and Xiaoshouxiang. Yunnan local real estate company Junfa Real Estate acquired 789 acres of land in Xinluojian Bay with 9.2 billion yuan, and it has become the real estate company with the largest land expenditure in Kunming land market in 2019. In addition, the 1690 acres of small whistle plots obtained by China Merchants Shekou Complex for 2.335 billion yuan became the largest batch of land in Kunming in 2019.
Jiang Guojun's analysis believes that with the advancement of major strategic plans in 2019, the scale of Kunming's centralized land supply has increased, and due to the need to compete for the Kunming market, the real estate companies' enthusiasm for land acquisition is also relatively high. Promote and jointly increase the cake of the Kunming land market in 2019. "It is expected that the land market in Kunming will still receive the attention of major real estate enterprises in 2020."
For example, when the leading real estate company Longhu Real Estate responded to the reporter of the Daily Economic News in December 2019, it maintained a high degree of attention to the Kunming market and continued to follow closely the projects and land that meet the group's investment expectations. Will choose to increase Kunming soil reserves. The official website of the Kunming Natural Resources and Planning Bureau shows that in July 2019, Longhu Real Estate won two residential and commercial land in Guanshang Sub-district Office in Guandu District with a reserve price of approximately 1.44 billion yuan, covering an area of 491.7916 million square meters.
At the same time, Jiang Guojun said that as the land sold in 2019 still needs to be digested, and the source funds of housing companies will still face tightening, the growth rate of Kunming's land market may slow down in 2020.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out to reporters from the Daily Economic News that many cities have cooled down due to regulation and control, but Kunming or the southwestern market performed well and transactions were relatively lively. The Kunming market has not yet been fully released, and there are still opportunities in 2020. At the same time, we must also pay attention to some new problems in the land market in Kunming. For example, if the subsequent land price does not rise rapidly, some companies are willing to go to Kunming to obtain land.
More than ten foreign housing companies are attracted in one year
Corresponding to the lively land market is the entry of many foreign housing enterprises.
According to incomplete statistics from the reporter of the Daily Economic News, Kunming welcomes the entry of more than ten foreign real estate companies such as Baoneng, Agile, and Shimao in 2019, of which several real estate companies, including Agile, Shimao and Xuhui, have made several appearances. Appeared in Kunming Land Market for land acquisition. So far, the top 20 real estate companies in China, including Country Garden, Vanke and Sunac, have all entered the Kunming market in 2019.
Among the real estate enterprises newly entering Kunming in 2019, the largest land acquisition is undoubtedly Baoneng Real Estate. On November 11, 2019, Kunming Baojun Real Estate Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Baoneng Real Estate, won a premium of 627 million yuan for a parcel of land on the south bank of Caohai. The floor price of residential land reached a maximum of 15922.5 yuan per square meter, refreshing Kunming Floor price history. The entire 595 acres of land on the south coast of Caohai was all won by Baoneng Real Estate companies, with a transaction value of 5.545 billion yuan.
The area with the most land is Sunshine City. Although Sunshine City had already developed a project with Poly in Kunming before, its first land acquisition in Kunming was in January 2019 with a premium of 96 million yuan to win 225 acres of land in Anping Taiping New City with a turnover of about 580 million yuan. The land construction project is Sunshine City Wenlan Mansion, which has now entered the market. In June 2019, Sunshine City acquired another 560 acres of white sandy land in Xishan District for 1.718 billion yuan, and the total area of the two acquisitions reached 785 acres.
"The trend of foreign real estate companies competing for the Kunming market is becoming more and more obvious. The main reason is that the Kunming market has a certain degree of popularity and it is more attractive to foreign provinces, especially the northern residents." Jiang Guojun explained that in recent years, Kunming's The strategic position has been continuously upgraded. The Kunming area of the China (Yunnan) Pilot Free Trade Zone and the large-scale health industry demonstration zone have prominent signboard effects, and the pace of construction of regional international central cities has accelerated. Cross-regional housing companies will naturally be able to smell business opportunities, and their interest in Kunming will also increase.
As a new housing company entering Kunming in 2019, the Kunming Cloud Silicon Intelligent Technology Town project created by Shanghai Pengxin Group also officially started at the end of December 2019. The project covers an area of about 10,000 acres and is planned to be built into a 100 billion yuan level. Industrial New Town. At the start of the ceremony, relevant persons in charge of Pengxin Group said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that they are optimistic about Kunming's status as a economic and trade center that radiates South Asia and Southeast Asia. Continue to increase investment in Kunming.
Yan Yuejin pointed out to reporters that the entry of many housing companies into the Kunming market shows that the Kunming market is still of concern. The cheaper land prices and the more active housing trading market can objectively bring some stimulus, and the subsequent growth is relatively high.
Kerer's latest statistics show that Kunming's TOP20 real estate companies will occupy 84.97% of the market in 2019, an increase of 12.87% year-on-year, and continue to grow at a rapid rate. This is mainly due to the company's forward-looking layout strategy, multiple developments and its own advantages. Kunming's real estate industry is oligopolistic. Large-scale real estate companies expand their supply sources in various ways and broaden their stocks. In the future, the concentration of real estate enterprises will further increase, and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises will face the pressure of being eliminated by the market.
According to relevant media reports, in 2019, two courts in Kunming received 11 applications involving bankruptcy of real estate companies, involving about 11,307 creditors. The People's Court Announcement Network also shows that many companies, including Kunming Qianyifeng, Yunnan Renze, Kunming Hengzhen, Austrian Real Estate, Kunming Shanti Rose, and Yunnan Artist Park, filed for bankruptcy in 2019.
House prices rise for 41 consecutive months
According to the "Sales Price Index of Newly-built Commercial Houses in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in November 2019" announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in December 2019, the sales price of newly-built commercial houses in Kunming in November 2019 increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 12.4% year-on-year. Since July 2016, Kunming's housing prices have risen for 41 consecutive months, and it is one of the cities in China with the longest continuous rise in the same period.
In addition, according to the "100-city House Price Index" released by the Middle Finger Research Institute in December 2019, in December 2019, the average price of residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 15,168 yuan / square meter, an increase of 0.42% month-on-month; Kunming December 2019 House prices rose 0.24% month-on-month, and the average price of new residential buildings was 10,889 yuan / square meter. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the house price index in 2015 was set to 100. By November 2019, the house price index in Kunming was 147.7, which was an increase of 47.7%. Among the 30 capital cities (including municipalities), Kunming The cumulative gain is ranked 12th.
"Relevant data shows that the increase in the price of new and second-hand housing in Kunming in 2019 has shown a clear downward trend, indicating that the housing market's growth momentum is weakening under the general pressure of the housing market. In 2020, there is still some room for upward price growth in Kunming, but it is relevant. Expected values will shrink, and market performance will also stabilize. "Jiang Guojun pointed out.
Despite the small increase in the overall market, housing prices in popular areas of Kunming have doubled in the past decade. Recently, a reporter from "Daily Economic News" visited the Dianchi plate in the current hot area of Kunming real estate and learned that the current real estate sales in Haiyueyue Mansion and Park 1903, with an average price of about 20,000 yuan / square meter. In 2013, the opening price of the first phase of the Southwest China Sea, just one street away from these two projects, was only 10,000 to 11,000 yuan / square meter.
"In 2019, the real estate market in Kunming experienced a dual situation of good performance and increased pressure, which also shows that the market has its fragile side, and stability itself is also the basic demand within the industry." Jiang Guojun said in the absence of In the case of major positive incentives or major negative suppression, the subsequent development trajectory will still reflect a stable basic tone.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that Kunming's housing prices continue to rise, and subsequent policies are easily tightened. In 2020, policy regulation will not be ruled out. The overall property market may show an upward trend. The entire Kunming market is worth looking forward to, but we must prevent excessive price hype.